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AI in the Wild ยท Lesson 11

Choosing a Model

GPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs open source: picking the right tool.

The Menu Is Long. Relax.

GPT, Claude, Gemini, Llama, Mistral... the model menu grows monthly, every launch claims to be the smartest, and the leaderboards reshuffle like a deck of cards. Here's the liberating secret: you don't need to pick the "best" model. You need to pick a good-enough model for your task. And that's a much easier question, one that stays answerable even as the specific models change under our feet.

Meet the Families

Think families, not individual models; versions change constantly, but the landscape's shape is more stable:

  • GPT (OpenAI): the family that ignited the ChatGPT moment. Broad general-purpose capability, a huge user base and ecosystem of integrations.
  • Claude (Anthropic): a family with an emphasis on careful, safety-focused behavior; popular for long documents, writing, and coding. (Full disclosure: a Claude wrote the first draft of this course. It promises it tried to be fair. A human checked.)
  • Gemini (Google): Google's family, with strong multimodal chops and natural ties into the Google ecosystem.
  • Open-source / open-weight (Llama, Mistral, and friends): models whose weights you can download and run on your own hardware. You handle the setup; in exchange you get control, customization, and privacy that closed APIs can't match.

Evergreen truth: every family ships models at multiple sizes, from flagship (smartest, priciest, slower) down to small (cheaper, faster, lighter). The gap between families is usually smaller than the gap between sizes within one family. Often the winning move isn't switching brands. It's right-sizing.

The Four Questions That Actually Matter

Forget the leaderboard drama. Ask these:

1. What's the task? Hard reasoning, long analysis, and high-stakes writing want a flagship. Autocomplete, tagging, summaries, and chat at volume are happy on small models. Audio and image inputs need a multimodal model. Match the tool to the job, not the hype.

2. What's the budget? API costs are per token, and flagship models can cost many times more than small ones. At one request a day, use whatever you like. At a million requests a day, model choice IS your budget. A common grown-up pattern: route easy queries to a cheap model, escalate hard ones to a flagship.

3. What are the privacy requirements? Using an API means sending data to a provider. For ordinary tasks with a reputable provider's enterprise terms, that's usually fine. For medical records, legal matters, or trade secrets, requirements tighten fast, which is exactly when self-hosted open-weight models shine: the data never leaves your building.

4. How much context do you need? Context windows (Lesson 8!) vary widely across models. Chatting? Almost anything works. Feeding in entire codebases, contracts, or books? The context window may matter more than any intelligence score.

The 30-second decision procedure

START: What does the task need?

Strict privacy / data cannot leave? --> open-weight, self-hosted Analyze huge documents? --> whichever has the big context window Images / audio in the mix? --> a multimodal model Hard reasoning, high stakes? --> a flagship model High volume, simple task? --> a small, cheap model Just chatting / drafting? --> honestly, almost any modern model is fine

The Choice in One Table

PriorityLean towardWhy
Raw capabilityA current flagship (any family)Top-tier models cluster near each other; test on YOUR task
Cost at scaleSmall or open-weight modelsPer-token pricing punishes overkill
Privacy and controlSelf-hosted open-weightData stays on your hardware
Long documentsLargest context window availableCapacity beats brains if the input won't fit
Ecosystem fitThe family your tools already speak toIntegration friction is real cost

Actually Deciding: Run a Bake-Off

The leaderboards measure general benchmarks; you care about your task. So audition candidates like you'd hire anyone, with a work sample:

  1. Collect 5 to 10 examples of your real task (real support tickets, real documents, real prompts).
  2. Run them through two or three candidate models.
  3. Compare quality, speed, and price on your examples.
  4. Pick the cheapest model that clears your quality bar. That's it. That's the methodology.

And keep perspective on switching costs, which run surprisingly low. Most providers use similar chat-style APIs, so swapping later is usually easy. This isn't a marriage; it's a hire, and re-hiring is cheap.

Beware benchmark-brain. A model that tops an abstract leaderboard can still lose to a cheaper rival on YOUR specific documents, in YOUR domain, at YOUR volume. Ten real examples beat a thousand benchmark points.

Asking "which AI model is best?" is like asking "which vehicle is best?" A flagship model is a luxury SUV; a small model is a bicycle. For a two-block trip to the bakery, the bicycle wins: faster, cheaper, and you can park it anywhere.

Checkpoint

Pick models by task, cost, privacy, and context size, then confirm with a small bake-off on your own examples, not the leaderboard.

Model-Picker Quiz

๐Ÿ“ Quiz

Question 1 of 4

A hospital wants an AI assistant, but patient data legally cannot leave its own servers. What's the strongest option?

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